United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 14.28 12.09 2.20 Bulls 11.68 8.83 2.90 Stormers 6.72 6.75 -0.00 Glasgow 6.56 9.39 -2.80 Munster 4.58 9.28 -4.70 Sharks 3.47 -2.94 6.40 Edinburgh 3.13 0.09 3.00 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Scarlets -0.26 -10.65 10.40 Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10 Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10 Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50 Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30 Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30 Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10 Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 17 34 – 24 15.40 TRUE 2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 17 47 – 17 10.30 TRUE 3 Munster vs. Benetton May 17 30 – 21 13.30 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Dragons May 18 55 – 15 34.00 TRUE 5 Lions vs. Ospreys May 18 29 – 28 7.80 TRUE 6 Zebre vs. Connacht May 18 12 – 22 -3.20 TRUE 7 Sharks vs. Scarlets May 18 12 – 3 9.30 TRUE 8 Leinster vs. Glasgow May 18 13 – 5 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Glasgow vs. Stormers May 31 Glasgow 8.10 2 Bulls vs. Edinburgh May 31 Bulls 14.20 3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jun 01 Leinster 28.20 4 Sharks vs. Munster Jun 01 Munster -6.70

 

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