Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 13.88 8.76 5.10 Toulon 4.74 5.32 -0.60 Bordeaux Begles 4.42 3.96 0.50 Stade Rochelais 2.06 4.85 -2.80 Clermont 1.52 0.41 1.10 Racing 92 1.05 2.75 -1.70 Montpellier 0.73 -0.96 1.70 Bayonne 0.46 -1.69 2.10 Castres Olympique 0.24 -0.09 0.30 Lyon 0.24 -0.18 0.40 Section Paloise -0.20 1.38 -1.60 Stade Francais -2.00 1.86 -3.90 USA Perpignan -4.05 -0.66 -3.40 Vannes -7.36 -10.00 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 167 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Vannes May 18 38 – 32 15.00 TRUE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 18 34 – 29 12.10 TRUE 3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 18 31 – 13 10.10 TRUE 4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon May 18 25 – 21 2.90 TRUE 5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 18 31 – 30 4.00 TRUE 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 May 18 35 – 37 20.00 FALSE 7 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier May 19 47 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Jun 01 Castres Olympique 5.30 2 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Jun 01 Clermont 9.10 3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Jun 01 Racing 92 8.00 4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Jun 01 Stade Rochelais 11.90 5 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jun 01 Stade Toulousain 19.10 6 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 Toulon 6.00 7 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Jun 01 Section Paloise -1.00

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 25 first appeared on Stats Chat.