Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 12.35 11.43 0.90 Blues 10.53 14.92 -4.40 Crusaders 10.32 8.99 1.30 Hurricanes 9.21 10.97 -1.80 Brumbies 6.54 6.19 0.30 Reds 1.66 1.35 0.30 Highlanders -3.27 -2.50 -0.80 Moana Pasifika -6.10 -11.25 5.10 Waratahs -6.57 -5.17 -1.40 Western Force -6.77 -6.41 -0.40 Fijian Drua -7.39 -7.98 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 24 – 20 17.10 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 16 33 – 48 -12.50 TRUE 3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force May 17 38 – 7 0.70 TRUE 4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues May 17 27 – 21 -14.70 FALSE 5 Brumbies vs. Reds May 17 24 – 14 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders May 23 Crusaders 17.10 2 Reds vs. Hurricanes May 23 Hurricanes -3.60 3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika May 24 Chiefs 22.00 4 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 24 Western Force 3.30

 

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