Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 11.88 5.55 6.30 Sale Sharks 7.02 4.73 2.30 Leicester Tigers 6.48 3.27 3.20 Gloucester 4.23 -9.04 13.30 Saracens 4.14 9.68 -5.50 Bristol 2.27 9.58 -7.30 Northampton Saints -0.94 7.50 -8.40 Harlequins -1.01 -2.73 1.70 Exeter Chiefs -4.36 1.23 -5.60 Newcastle Falcons -18.96 -19.02 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester May 17 12 – 26 -17.40 TRUE 2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 17 41 – 27 10.60 TRUE 3 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 43 – 15 7.90 TRUE 4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens May 18 28 – 24 0.80 TRUE 5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 24 – 22 11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 01 Bristol 9.80 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 01 Sale Sharks -4.90 3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jun 01 Gloucester 11.70 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 01 Leicester Tigers 31.90 5 Saracens vs. Bath Jun 01 Bath -1.20

 

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