AFL Predictions for Week 12

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 23.14 18.20 4.90 Collingwood 19.34 5.39 14.00 Geelong Cats 19.01 15.04 4.00 Hawthorn Hawks 16.91 21.95 -5.00 Adelaide Crows 13.17 2.69 10.50 Brisbane Lions 11.73 22.65 -10.90 Sydney Swans 6.63 12.60 -6.00 GWS Giants 5.96 9.08 -3.10 Gold Coast Suns 4.97 -6.41 11.40 Fremantle Dockers 4.61 5.99 -1.40 Carlton Blues 3.46 5.01 -1.60 St Kilda Saints -3.98 0.89 -4.90 Melbourne Demons -4.85 -0.21 -4.60 Port Adelaide Power -5.16 7.63 -12.80 Essendon Bombers -15.02 -10.15 -4.90 North Melbourne -28.28 -37.08 8.80 West Coast Eagles -30.92 -34.67 3.70 Richmond Tigers -33.12 -31.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 15 104 – 96 -15.40 FALSE 2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 16 78 – 62 13.60 TRUE 3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 17 78 – 68 19.40 TRUE 4 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 61 – 95 19.40 FALSE 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats May 17 39 – 115 -4.10 TRUE 6 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers May 17 127 – 36 30.30 TRUE 7 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne May 18 74 – 78 -5.10 TRUE 8 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons May 18 88 – 99 33.70 FALSE 9 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints May 18 108 – 80 -22.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs May 22 Geelong Cats 6.90 2 Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers May 23 Essendon Bombers 18.10 3 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants May 24 Carlton Blues 8.50 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 Hawthorn Hawks 16.20 5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood May 24 Collingwood -47.60 6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power May 24 Fremantle Dockers 20.80 7 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 25 Adelaide Crows 55.10 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans May 25 Sydney Swans -0.50 9 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 St Kilda Saints 2.10

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.