NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.12 9.29 0.80 Panthers 5.47 8.50 -3.00 Roosters 5.33 7.44 -2.10 Sharks 4.93 5.10 -0.20 Sea Eagles 2.53 2.97 -0.40 Bulldogs 2.31 0.07 2.20 Cowboys 2.14 4.11 -2.00 Raiders 0.42 -3.61 4.00 Dolphins 0.17 -1.96 2.10 Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00 Warriors -0.88 -1.68 0.80 Knights -3.24 -0.05 -3.20 Dragons -3.79 -4.55 0.80 Rabbitohs -3.85 -4.35 0.50 Eels -4.27 -3.02 -1.30 Titans -7.28 -5.50 -1.80 Wests Tigers -9.33 -10.97 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins May 22 8 – 44 8.50 FALSE 2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 23 30 – 10 -6.00 FALSE 3 Panthers vs. Knights May 24 6 – 25 11.20 FALSE 4 Roosters vs. Sharks May 24 42 – 16 1.30 TRUE 5 Warriors vs. Raiders May 25 10 – 16 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dragons vs. Knights May 30 Dragons 2.40 2 Titans vs. Storm May 31 Storm -14.40 3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 31 Cowboys 14.50 4 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 31 Sea Eagles 6.30 5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 01 Rabbitohs 0.50 6 Panthers vs. Eels Jun 01 Panthers 9.70 7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 01 Roosters 7.90

 

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