AFL Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 22.28 18.20 4.10 Geelong Cats 19.87 15.04 4.80 Collingwood 19.03 5.39 13.60 Brisbane Lions 15.02 22.65 -7.60 Adelaide Crows 14.48 2.69 11.80 Hawthorn Hawks 13.62 21.95 -8.30 GWS Giants 8.51 9.08 -0.60 Fremantle Dockers 6.67 5.99 0.70 Gold Coast Suns 6.57 -6.41 13.00 Sydney Swans 3.10 12.60 -9.50 Carlton Blues 0.91 5.01 -4.10 Melbourne Demons -1.32 -0.21 -1.10 St Kilda Saints -5.58 0.89 -6.50 Port Adelaide Power -7.22 7.63 -14.90 Essendon Bombers -14.43 -10.15 -4.30 North Melbourne -27.96 -37.08 9.10 West Coast Eagles -32.23 -34.67 2.40 Richmond Tigers -33.70 -31.00 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs May 22 127 – 113 6.90 TRUE 2 Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers May 23 81 – 58 18.10 TRUE 3 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants May 24 82 – 110 8.50 FALSE 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 60 – 93 16.20 FALSE 5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood May 24 63 – 108 -47.60 TRUE 6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power May 24 100 – 51 20.80 TRUE 7 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 25 128 – 62 55.10 TRUE 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans May 25 131 – 78 -0.50 FALSE 9 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 61 – 80 2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers May 29 Brisbane Lions 40.50 2 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 30 Collingwood 5.40 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers May 31 Gold Coast Suns 10.90 4 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers May 31 GWS Giants 53.20 5 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows May 31 Adelaide Crows -0.40 6 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 Melbourne Demons 4.30 7 West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats Jun 01 Geelong Cats -41.10

 

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