United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 13.40 12.09 1.30 Bulls 11.12 8.83 2.30 Glasgow 7.51 9.39 -1.90 Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00 Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30 Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60 Sharks 3.09 -2.94 6.00 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30 Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10 Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10 Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50 Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30 Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30 Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10 Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Stormers May 31 36 – 18 5.30 TRUE 2 Bulls vs. Edinburgh May 31 42 – 33 14.00 TRUE 3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jun 01 33 – 21 20.00 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Munster Jun 01 25 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 Leinster 11.40 2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 Bulls 10.50

 

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