Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.74 8.76 6.00 Toulon 5.15 5.32 -0.20 Bordeaux Begles 3.98 3.96 0.00 Stade Rochelais 2.47 4.85 -2.40 Clermont 2.45 0.41 2.00 Montpellier 1.17 -0.96 2.10 Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.09 1.20 Section Paloise 0.70 1.38 -0.70 Racing 92 0.61 2.75 -2.10 Bayonne -0.41 -1.69 1.30 Lyon -0.48 -0.18 -0.30 Stade Francais -2.88 1.86 -4.70 USA Perpignan -4.58 -0.66 -3.90 Vannes -8.26 -10.00 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Jun 01 33 – 3 5.30 TRUE 2 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Jun 01 55 – 20 9.10 TRUE 3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Jun 01 25 – 27 8.00 FALSE 4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Jun 01 38 – 15 11.90 TRUE 5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Jun 01 26 – 52 -1.00 TRUE 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jun 02 43 – 3 19.10 TRUE 7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 27 – 10 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Jun 08 Bayonne 1.90 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes Jun 08 Bordeaux Begles 18.40 3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Jun 08 Lyon 5.40 4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Jun 08 Montpellier 5.50 5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 08 Section Paloise 5.90 6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jun 08 Stade Francais 3.00 7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 08 Stade Toulousain -12.00

 

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