Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 10.75 5.55 5.20 Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20 Leicester Tigers 5.49 3.27 2.20 Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40 Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60 Bristol 3.89 9.58 -5.70 Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80 Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10 Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50 Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 01 52 – 26 9.80 TRUE 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 01 26 – 30 -4.90 TRUE 3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jun 01 41 – 26 11.70 TRUE 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 01 42 – 20 31.90 TRUE 5 Saracens vs. Bath Jun 01 36 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 Bath 13.40 2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 Leicester Tigers 5.10

 

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