AFL Predictions for Week 14
Stats Chat 2025-06-03
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 22.28 18.20 4.10 Collingwood 22.11 5.39 16.70 Geelong Cats 20.09 15.04 5.10 Adelaide Crows 19.96 2.69 17.30 Brisbane Lions 13.33 22.65 -9.30 Hawthorn Hawks 10.53 21.95 -11.40 Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30 GWS Giants 5.17 9.08 -3.90 Gold Coast Suns 4.91 -6.41 11.30 Carlton Blues 0.91 5.01 -4.10 Sydney Swans -2.38 12.60 -15.00 St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20 Melbourne Demons -3.62 -0.21 -3.40 Port Adelaide Power -7.22 7.63 -14.90 Essendon Bombers -12.74 -10.15 -2.60 North Melbourne -27.96 -37.08 9.10 Richmond Tigers -30.36 -31.00 0.60 West Coast Eagles -32.46 -34.67 2.20
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers May 29 90 – 72 40.50 TRUE 2 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 30 107 – 56 5.40 TRUE 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers May 31 64 – 75 10.90 FALSE 4 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers May 31 80 – 77 53.20 TRUE 5 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows May 31 41 – 131 -0.40 TRUE 6 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 63 – 91 4.30 FALSE 7 West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats Jun 01 73 – 116 -41.10 TRUE
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 Western Bulldogs 11.80 2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 Adelaide Crows 17.60 3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 Sydney Swans -17.00 4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 Geelong Cats 19.20 5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 GWS Giants 23.40 6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 West Coast Eagles -6.50 7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 Carlton Blues 13.60 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 Collingwood -25.70The post AFL Predictions for Week 14 first appeared on Stats Chat.