NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Sea Eagles 9.18 9.10 0.10 Rabbitohs 7.48 5.82 1.70 Roosters 7.09 12.35 -5.30 Cowboys 4.89 6.01 -1.10 Warriors 4.38 -0.72 5.10 Storm 2.94 7.64 -4.70 Broncos 0.81 -4.69 5.50 Panthers -0.02 -2.48 2.50 Bulldogs -0.76 2.46 -3.20 Knights -1.30 5.23 -6.50 Dragons -2.44 -7.57 5.10 Titans -5.06 1.45 -6.50 Raiders -6.23 -8.99 2.80 Wests Tigers -6.81 -11.26 4.50 Sharks -7.26 2.32 -9.60 Eels -8.66 -18.45 9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 25 16 – 12 -5.80 FALSE 2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 25 8 – 30 7.40 FALSE 3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 14.80 FALSE 4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 26 18 – 24 11.20 FALSE 5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 26 12 – 20 0.50 FALSE 6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 12 – 22 1.90 FALSE 7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Jul 27 12 – 28 3.60 FALSE 8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 34 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Sea Eagles 12.90 2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 01 Bulldogs 3.80 3 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 02 Sharks 5.90 4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 02 Cowboys 14.50 5 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 02 Roosters 14.00 6 Raiders vs. Warriors Aug 03 Warriors -6.10 7 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 03 Rabbitohs 13.30 8 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Aug 04 Storm -5.20