United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 14.13 12.09 2.00 Bulls 11.28 8.83 2.50 Glasgow 6.79 9.39 -2.60 Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00 Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30 Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60 Sharks 2.93 -2.94 5.90 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30 Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10 Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10 Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50 Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30 Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30 Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10 Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 37 – 19 11.40 TRUE 2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 25 – 13 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 15 Leinster 8.30

 

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