Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 14.01 11.43 2.60 Blues 11.63 14.92 -3.30 Crusaders 10.34 8.99 1.40 Hurricanes 9.86 10.97 -1.10 Brumbies 6.84 6.19 0.60 Reds 2.36 1.35 1.00 Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40 Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80 Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70 Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50 Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 06 32 – 12 11.20 TRUE 2 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 07 19 – 20 6.60 FALSE 3 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 35 – 28 0.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 13 Crusaders 2.20 2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Chiefs 11.20

 

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