Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 10.82 5.55 5.30 Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20 Leicester Tigers 5.48 3.27 2.20 Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40 Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60 Bristol 3.83 9.58 -5.80 Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80 Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10 Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50 Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 34 – 20 13.40 TRUE 2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 21 – 16 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 15 Bath 5.30

 

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