NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.54 9.29 1.20 Panthers 4.95 8.50 -3.60 Roosters 4.83 7.44 -2.60 Sharks 3.43 5.10 -1.70 Sea Eagles 3.03 2.97 0.10 Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70 Dolphins 1.81 -1.96 3.80 Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30 Cowboys 1.01 4.11 -3.10 Warriors 0.98 -1.68 2.70 Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00 Knights -3.37 -0.05 -3.30 Eels -4.58 -3.02 -1.60 Dragons -4.87 -4.55 -0.30 Rabbitohs -4.94 -4.35 -0.60 Titans -8.03 -5.50 -2.50 Wests Tigers -8.42 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 26 – 22 -4.30 FALSE 2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 06 38 – 14 11.30 TRUE 3 Dolphins vs. Dragons Jun 06 56 – 6 6.40 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 07 10 – 40 8.90 FALSE 5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 07 44 – 14 8.40 TRUE 6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 36 – 12 8.10 TRUE 7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 08 14 – 18 -11.10 TRUE 8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 09 30 – 12 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 12 Sharks 11.30 2 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 13 Sea Eagles -8.10 3 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 14 Roosters -5.20 4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 14 Cowboys 2.20 5 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 Bulldogs -7.70

 

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