AFL Predictions for Week 15
Stats Chat 2025-06-10
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 20.67 15.04 5.60 Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90 Western Bulldogs 19.90 18.20 1.70 Adelaide Crows 18.92 2.69 16.20 Brisbane Lions 14.37 22.65 -8.30 Hawthorn Hawks 12.92 21.95 -9.00 Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30 Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80 GWS Giants 2.44 9.08 -6.60 Carlton Blues 0.23 5.01 -4.80 Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00 Melbourne Demons -1.79 -0.21 -1.60 St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20 Port Adelaide Power -4.49 7.63 -12.10 Essendon Bombers -12.07 -10.15 -1.90 North Melbourne -26.66 -37.08 10.40 Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30 West Coast Eagles -33.76 -34.67 0.90
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 59 – 81 11.80 FALSE 2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 68 – 63 17.60 TRUE 3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 36 – 80 -17.00 TRUE 4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 61 – 37 19.20 TRUE 5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 50 – 66 23.40 FALSE 6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 62 – 52 -6.50 FALSE 7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 78 – 70 13.60 TRUE 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 71 – 72 -25.70 TRUE
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 Western Bulldogs -23.20 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 Hawthorn Hawks 5.00 3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 22.90 4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 Geelong Cats -21.70 5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 Fremantle Dockers -46.00 6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 Port Adelaide Power 8.30 7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 Carlton Blues -23.00The post AFL Predictions for Week 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.