Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.01 8.76 5.20 Toulon 4.97 5.32 -0.30 Bordeaux Begles 4.39 3.96 0.40 Clermont 2.59 0.41 2.20 Stade Rochelais 2.17 4.85 -2.70 Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40 Section Paloise 0.95 1.38 -0.40 Castres Olympique 0.57 -0.09 0.70 Montpellier 0.50 -0.96 1.50 Bayonne 0.43 -1.69 2.10 Lyon -1.07 -0.18 -0.90 Stade Francais -2.53 1.86 -4.40 USA Perpignan -3.89 -0.66 -3.20 Vannes -8.68 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Jun 15 52 – 23 11.90 TRUE 2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Jun 14 20 – 3 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Jun 21 Stade Toulousain 19.20 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Jun 22 Bordeaux Begles 6.80

 

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