NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.54 9.29 1.20 Panthers 4.95 8.50 -3.60 Roosters 4.73 7.44 -2.70 Dolphins 3.82 -1.96 5.80 Sharks 3.48 5.10 -1.60 Bulldogs 2.62 0.07 2.50 Sea Eagles 1.88 2.97 -1.10 Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30 Warriors 0.98 -1.68 2.70 Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00 Cowboys -1.00 4.11 -5.10 Knights -3.28 -0.05 -3.20 Eels -4.58 -3.02 -1.60 Rabbitohs -4.81 -4.35 -0.50 Dragons -4.92 -4.55 -0.40 Titans -6.87 -5.50 -1.40 Wests Tigers -8.42 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 12 30 – 18 11.30 TRUE 2 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 13 28 – 8 -8.10 FALSE 3 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 14 8 – 12 -5.20 TRUE 4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 14 4 – 58 2.20 FALSE 5 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 18 – 24 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 20 Raiders -7.10 2 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 21 Panthers -0.50 3 Dolphins vs. Knights Jun 21 Dolphins 10.10 4 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jun 21 Storm -12.30 5 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 22 Sharks -1.30 6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 22 Roosters 8.70 7 Eels vs. Titans Jun 22 Eels 5.30

 

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