AFL Predictions for Week 16
Stats Chat 2025-06-17
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 25.29 15.04 10.30 Western Bulldogs 23.17 18.20 5.00 Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90 Adelaide Crows 19.16 2.69 16.50 Hawthorn Hawks 12.68 21.95 -9.30 Brisbane Lions 11.97 22.65 -10.70 Fremantle Dockers 5.56 5.99 -0.40 GWS Giants 4.84 9.08 -4.20 Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80 Carlton Blues 1.55 5.01 -3.50 Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00 Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90 Port Adelaide Power -3.18 7.63 -10.80 St Kilda Saints -6.55 0.89 -7.40 Essendon Bombers -16.68 -10.15 -6.50 North Melbourne -23.90 -37.08 13.20 Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30 West Coast Eagles -35.08 -34.67 -0.40
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 60 – 132 -23.20 TRUE 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 47 – 44 5.00 TRUE 3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 96 – 107 22.90 FALSE 4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 56 – 151 -21.70 TRUE 5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 67 – 73 -46.00 TRUE 6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 93 – 68 8.30 TRUE 7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 52 – 86 -23.00 TRUE
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 19 Fremantle Dockers 33.20 2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 20 Geelong Cats 17.30 3 Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 Carlton Blues 29.50 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 21 Port Adelaide Power 8.20 5 Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 21 Collingwood 30.80 6 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 22 GWS Giants 11.50 7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 22 Western Bulldogs 59.50The post AFL Predictions for Week 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.