Top 14 Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 13.56 8.76 4.80 Bordeaux Begles 4.71 3.96 0.80 Toulon 4.67 5.32 -0.60 Clermont 2.59 0.41 2.20 Stade Rochelais 2.19 4.85 -2.70 Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40 Section Paloise 0.92 1.38 -0.50 Bayonne 0.90 -1.69 2.60 Castres Olympique 0.57 -0.09 0.70 Montpellier 0.48 -0.96 1.40 Lyon -1.07 -0.18 -0.90 Stade Francais -2.53 1.86 -4.40 USA Perpignan -3.91 -0.66 -3.30 Vannes -8.66 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 143 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Jun 21 32 – 25 19.20 TRUE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Jun 22 39 – 24 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 29 Stade Toulousain 8.00

 

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