AFL Predictions for Week 17
Stats Chat 2025-06-23
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 24.66 18.20 6.50 Geelong Cats 21.49 15.04 6.50 Collingwood 20.66 5.39 15.30 Adelaide Crows 19.16 2.69 16.50 Brisbane Lions 15.77 22.65 -6.90 Hawthorn Hawks 12.68 21.95 -9.30 Fremantle Dockers 6.49 5.99 0.50 Gold Coast Suns 4.88 -6.41 11.30 GWS Giants 4.30 9.08 -4.80 Sydney Swans 1.59 12.60 -11.00 Carlton Blues -1.24 5.01 -6.30 Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90 Port Adelaide Power -5.17 7.63 -12.80 St Kilda Saints -6.93 0.89 -7.80 Essendon Bombers -17.61 -10.15 -7.50 North Melbourne -21.12 -37.08 16.00 Richmond Tigers -33.83 -31.00 -2.80 West Coast Eagles -35.08 -34.67 -0.40
Performance So Far
So far there have been 127 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 19 104 – 63 33.20 TRUE 2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 20 51 – 92 17.30 FALSE 3 Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 73 – 84 29.50 FALSE 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 21 52 – 71 8.20 FALSE 5 Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 21 108 – 74 30.80 TRUE 6 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 22 106 – 99 11.50 TRUE 7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 22 135 – 56 59.50 TRUE
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues Jun 26 Port Adelaide Power 7.10 2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 27 Western Bulldogs -12.10 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 Gold Coast Suns 19.00 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Jun 28 Hawthorn Hawks 37.80 5 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 28 Collingwood 66.70 6 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 29 Adelaide Crows -42.00 7 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 29 Fremantle Dockers 24.40The post AFL Predictions for Week 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.