Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bay of Plenty 11.55 6.48 5.10 Canterbury 8.97 4.02 5.00 Taranaki 7.57 5.30 2.30 Hawke’s Bay 6.42 0.68 5.70 Otago 4.14 -1.15 5.30 Counties Manukau 3.63 -0.26 3.90 Wellington 2.70 6.60 -3.90 Tasman 0.68 3.49 -2.80 Waikato -0.83 5.46 -6.30 Auckland -2.64 -0.04 -2.60 North Harbour -4.18 1.50 -5.70 Northland -5.96 -6.54 0.60 Southland -10.83 -5.90 -4.90 Manawatu -15.05 -13.45 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Otago vs. Waikato Oct 10 44 – 41 9.50 TRUE 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 11 27 – 7 11.90 TRUE 3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Oct 11 26 – 12 -0.10 FALSE 4 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 23 – 15 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Bay of Plenty -4.40 2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 18 Canterbury 5.60

 

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