NFL Predictions for Week 17

Team Ratings for Week 17

This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with the game, I did add a special home ground advantage for the home team when the game was played on a Thursday. The logic for that was the reduced number of away fans who might travel on a Thursday and the limited time the away team might have to accustom to a different field. That said, I don’t see a big effect in the data for those games.

What is notable about the results is that these games are hard to predict. One marker for this is the limited range of the current ratings, despite there being 32 teams. For the current predictions, the range is 16.52 compared to 26.66 for the Rugby Premiership where there are only 10 teams.

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Rams 9.12 3.32 5.80 Seahawks 8.19 1.60 6.60 Lions 7.49 9.26 -1.80 Packers 6.15 5.92 0.20 Bills 4.63 8.28 -3.70 Patriots 4.50 -6.88 11.40 Chargers 4.02 2.67 1.30 Texans 3.98 0.65 3.30 49ers 3.12 -3.05 6.20 Eagles 2.35 12.46 -10.10 Jaguars 2.35 -6.28 8.60 Steelers 1.77 -0.33 2.10 Ravens 1.37 11.27 -9.90 Broncos 0.44 3.65 -3.20 Bears 0.32 -3.03 3.40 Chiefs 0.18 3.00 -2.80 Bengals 0.13 3.45 -3.30 Vikings -0.01 2.67 -2.70 Colts -0.36 -5.52 5.20 Falcons -2.36 -3.22 0.90 Dolphins -2.83 0.72 -3.60 Cowboys -3.30 -3.23 -0.10 Saints -3.71 -5.63 1.90 Buccaneers -4.35 3.86 -8.20 Browns -4.40 -9.54 5.10 Raiders -4.97 -5.45 0.50 Panthers -5.80 -7.28 1.50 Commanders -5.95 2.74 -8.70 Giants -5.99 -7.54 1.50 Cardinals -6.37 0.58 -7.00 Titans -6.46 -9.40 2.90 Jets -7.40 -3.87 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 240 matches played, 146 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Seahawks vs. Rams Dec 18 38 – 37 -0.30 FALSE 2 Ravens vs. Patriots Dec 21 24 – 28 -1.40 TRUE 3 Panthers vs. Buccaneers Dec 21 23 – 20 -1.80 FALSE 4 Browns vs. Bills Dec 21 20 – 23 -10.00 TRUE 5 Cowboys vs. Chargers Dec 21 17 – 34 -3.80 TRUE 6 Saints vs. Jets Dec 21 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE 7 Giants vs. Vikings Dec 21 13 – 16 -5.70 TRUE 8 Titans vs. Chiefs Dec 21 26 – 9 -10.30 FALSE 9 Cardinals vs. Falcons Dec 21 19 – 26 -1.50 TRUE 10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Dec 21 20 – 34 2.10 FALSE 11 Lions vs. Steelers Dec 21 24 – 29 9.40 FALSE 12 Texans vs. Raiders Dec 21 23 – 21 13.00 TRUE 13 Dolphins vs. Bengals Dec 21 21 – 45 2.60 FALSE 14 Bears vs. Packers Dec 21 22 – 16 -7.40 FALSE 15 Commanders vs. Eagles Dec 21 18 – 29 -5.90 TRUE 16 Colts vs. 49ers Dec 22 27 – 48 1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 Cowboys -1.70 2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 Lions -6.50 3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 Chiefs 0.70 4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 Steelers -5.20 5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 Jaguars -1.70 6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 Dolphins 2.50 7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 Patriots -10.90 8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 Saints -1.80 9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 Bills 3.30 10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 49ers 3.80 11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 Packers 5.80 12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 Chargers 1.00 13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 Rams -10.50 14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 Seahawks -13.00 15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 Bengals 7.50 16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 Raiders 2.00

 

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