United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 8.99 13.41 -4.40 Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70 Glasgow 7.86 6.18 1.70 Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40 Munster 4.45 3.65 0.80 Edinburgh 2.64 2.67 -0.00 Ulster 0.12 -3.24 3.40 Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00 Connacht -0.66 -1.39 0.70 Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50 Scarlets -1.41 -0.54 -0.90 Cardiff Rugby -2.19 -2.74 0.50 Ospreys -3.28 -2.15 -1.10 Benetton -4.90 -2.32 -2.60 Zebre -11.24 -11.02 -0.20 Dragons -13.21 -15.66 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 20 17 – 21 2.70 FALSE 2 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 20 24 – 20 11.90 TRUE 3 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 34 – 27 12.30 TRUE 4 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 21 21 – 15 9.00 TRUE 5 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 21 24 – 12 5.90 TRUE 6 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 21 21 – 12 -6.40 FALSE 7 Ospreys vs. Munster Dec 21 10 – 26 1.10 FALSE 8 Dragons vs. Connacht Dec 21 48 – 28 -8.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 13.00 2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 3.90 3 Bulls vs. Stormers Dec 28 Stormers -1.50 4 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 28 Lions 3.00 5 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 Benetton -4.30 6 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 Glasgow -3.20 7 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 Connacht 1.20 8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 Leinster -2.50

 

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