Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 13.66 10.30 3.40 Bristol 6.46 3.66 2.80 Saracens 6.38 5.03 1.30 Leicester Tigers 5.24 5.55 -0.30 Exeter Chiefs 3.26 -4.58 7.80 Sale Sharks 3.08 6.70 -3.60 Northampton Saints 0.84 -1.47 2.30 Gloucester -2.53 4.13 -6.70 Harlequins -5.53 -3.02 -2.50 Newcastle Red Bulls -23.00 -18.45 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 20 45 – 14 11.90 TRUE 2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 21 47 – 21 1.20 TRUE 3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 21 24 – 30 12.90 FALSE 4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 21 14 – 40 -1.40 TRUE 5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bath Dec 22 14 – 50 -28.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Dec 27 Sale Sharks 15.60 2 Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 28 Bristol 36.50 3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Dec 28 Saracens -1.90 4 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Dec 28 Bath 19.80 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Exeter Chiefs 5.00

 

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