NFL Predictions for Week 18

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Seahawks 8.75 1.60 7.20 Rams 7.84 3.32 4.50 Patriots 6.37 -6.88 13.30 Lions 5.74 9.26 -3.50 Texans 4.69 0.65 4.00 Packers 4.15 5.92 -1.80 Bills 4.03 8.28 -4.30 Ravens 3.36 11.27 -7.90 Chargers 3.31 2.67 0.60 49ers 3.15 -3.05 6.20 Eagles 2.95 12.46 -9.50 Jaguars 2.95 -6.28 9.20 Vikings 1.74 2.67 -0.90 Bengals 1.57 3.45 -1.90 Broncos 1.53 3.65 -2.10 Steelers 0.60 -0.33 0.90 Bears 0.29 -3.03 3.30 Chiefs -0.90 3.00 -3.90 Colts -0.96 -5.52 4.60 Falcons -1.08 -3.22 2.10 Cowboys -2.55 -3.23 0.70 Dolphins -2.76 0.72 -3.50 Saints -2.84 -5.63 2.80 Browns -3.23 -9.54 6.30 Giants -3.75 -7.54 3.80 Buccaneers -4.42 3.86 -8.30 Panthers -6.36 -7.28 0.90 Commanders -6.70 2.74 -9.40 Raiders -7.20 -5.45 -1.70 Titans -7.34 -9.40 2.10 Cardinals -7.81 0.58 -8.40 Jets -9.27 -3.87 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 256 matches played, 154 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 23 – 30 -1.70 TRUE 2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 23 – 10 -6.50 FALSE 3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 13 – 20 0.70 FALSE 4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 13 – 6 -5.20 FALSE 5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 17 – 23 -1.70 TRUE 6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 20 – 17 2.50 TRUE 7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 10 – 42 -10.90 TRUE 8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 26 – 34 -1.80 TRUE 9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 12 – 13 3.30 FALSE 10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 42 – 38 3.80 TRUE 11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 24 – 41 5.80 FALSE 12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 16 – 20 1.00 FALSE 13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 27 – 24 -10.50 FALSE 14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 10 – 27 -13.00 TRUE 15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 37 – 14 7.50 TRUE 16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 10 – 34 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 Falcons 2.80 2 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 Bills 14.30 3 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 Lions -4.50 4 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 Bengals 5.80 5 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 Chargers -0.80 6 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 Texans 6.70 7 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 Jaguars 11.30 8 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 Rams 16.60 9 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 Chiefs -5.30 10 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 Packers -1.40 11 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 Patriots 10.10 12 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 Cowboys -0.20 13 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 Eagles 10.60 14 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 Ravens -1.80 15 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 05 Seahawks -4.60 16 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 05 Buccaneers 2.90

 

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