United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 9.26 13.41 -4.10 Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70 Glasgow 8.69 6.18 2.50 Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40 Munster 4.18 3.65 0.50 Edinburgh 1.81 2.67 -0.90 Ulster 0.80 -3.24 4.00 Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00 Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50 Connacht -1.34 -1.39 0.00 Scarlets -2.07 -0.54 -1.50 Ospreys -2.62 -2.15 -0.50 Cardiff Rugby -2.81 -2.74 -0.10 Benetton -4.30 -2.32 -2.00 Zebre -11.84 -11.02 -0.80 Dragons -12.59 -15.66 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 22 – 19 13.00 TRUE 2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 19 – 26 3.90 FALSE 3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 23 – 37 -4.30 TRUE 4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 3 – 21 -3.20 TRUE 5 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 24 – 29 1.20 FALSE 6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 8 – 13 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 Scarlets -8.50 2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Ospreys 2.20 3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 Munster -1.40 4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 Sharks 1.00 5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 Stormers 5.50 6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 Benetton 0.90 7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 Leinster 12.60 8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 Glasgow 27.50

 

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