Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.37 11.56 2.80 Bordeaux Begles 4.73 4.78 -0.10 Section Paloise 4.08 2.21 1.90 Toulon 3.14 3.49 -0.40 Clermont 2.83 1.88 0.90 Racing 92 2.49 1.88 0.60 Stade Rochelais 2.02 1.22 0.80 Montpellier 1.57 -0.21 1.80 Stade Francais 1.40 -2.17 3.60 Castres Olympique 0.21 0.59 -0.40 Bayonne -0.29 1.48 -1.80 Lyon -1.74 -0.45 -1.30 USA Perpignan -6.70 -3.37 -3.30 Montauban -15.23 -10.00 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 28 35 – 34 5.30 TRUE 2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 28 36 – 22 7.70 TRUE 3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 28 34 – 19 3.80 TRUE 4 Racing 92 vs. Montauban Dec 28 61 – 16 22.80 TRUE 5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Dec 29 35 – 33 10.00 TRUE 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 29 60 – 14 17.10 TRUE 7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Dec 29 31 – 16 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jan 04 Bordeaux Begles 8.70 2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Jan 04 Lyon 0.70 3 Montauban vs. Clermont Jan 04 Clermont -11.60 4 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 04 Montpellier 8.40 5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 04 Stade Francais 7.70 6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 04 Stade Toulousain -14.60 7 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Jan 05 Stade Rochelais 5.40

 

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