Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 10.90 10.30 0.60 Saracens 6.97 5.03 1.90 Leicester Tigers 4.52 5.55 -1.00 Bristol 4.49 3.66 0.80 Exeter Chiefs 3.98 -4.58 8.60 Sale Sharks 3.91 6.70 -2.80 Northampton Saints 3.59 -1.47 5.10 Gloucester -3.11 4.13 -7.20 Harlequins -6.36 -3.02 -3.30 Newcastle Red Bulls -21.03 -18.45 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Dec 27 43 – 17 15.60 TRUE 2 Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 28 36 – 27 36.50 TRUE 3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Dec 28 21 – 30 -1.90 TRUE 4 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Dec 28 21 – 41 19.80 FALSE 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 24 – 10 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 Bristol 7.60 2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester Jan 03 Gloucester -10.90 3 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 04 Bath 13.90 4 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Northampton Saints 16.90 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 4.60

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.