NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Seahawks 9.51 1.60 7.90 Patriots 8.00 -6.88 14.90 Rams 7.89 3.32 4.60 Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70 Bills 5.24 8.28 -3.00 Jaguars 4.94 -6.28 11.20 Texans 4.88 0.65 4.20 Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40 Broncos 3.07 3.65 -0.60 Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40 Packers 2.80 5.92 -3.10 49ers 2.40 -3.05 5.40 Chargers 1.77 2.67 -0.90 Eagles 1.34 12.46 -11.10 Steelers 1.13 -0.33 1.50 Bears 0.49 -3.03 3.50 Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00 Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40 Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00 Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90 Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40 Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40 Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90 Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90 Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10 Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40 Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80 Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70 Panthers -6.23 -7.28 1.10 Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40 Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10 Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 272 matches played, 163 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 04 3 – 13 -4.60 TRUE 2 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 04 16 – 14 2.90 TRUE 3 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE 4 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 35 – 8 14.30 TRUE 5 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 16 – 19 -4.50 TRUE 6 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 18 – 20 5.80 FALSE 7 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 19 – 3 -0.80 FALSE 8 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 38 – 30 6.70 TRUE 9 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 41 – 7 11.30 TRUE 10 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 37 – 20 16.60 TRUE 11 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 14 – 12 -5.30 FALSE 12 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 16 – 3 -1.40 FALSE 13 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 38 – 10 10.10 TRUE 14 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 34 – 17 -0.20 FALSE 15 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 17 – 24 10.60 FALSE 16 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 26 – 24 -1.80 FALSE

Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Here are the predictions for the Wild Card Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Panthers vs. Rams Jan 11 Rams -13.10 2 Bears vs. Packers Jan 11 Packers -1.30 3 Jaguars vs. Bills Jan 12 Jaguars 0.70 4 Eagles vs. 49ers Jan 12 49ers -0.10 5 Patriots vs. Chargers Jan 12 Patriots 7.20 6 Steelers vs. Texans Jan 13 Texans -2.70 The post NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games first appeared on Stats Chat.