United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 10.39 13.41 -3.00 Glasgow 9.28 6.18 3.10 Stormers 8.85 4.17 4.70 Bulls 5.47 8.86 -3.40 Munster 2.90 3.65 -0.80 Ulster 2.08 -3.24 5.30 Edinburgh 2.02 2.67 -0.70 Lions -0.02 -1.19 1.20 Sharks -1.48 1.29 -2.80 Ospreys -2.05 -2.15 0.10 Connacht -2.48 -1.39 -1.10 Cardiff Rugby -3.37 -2.74 -0.60 Scarlets -3.54 -0.54 -3.00 Benetton -4.51 -2.32 -2.20 Dragons -11.13 -15.66 4.50 Zebre -12.44 -11.02 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 28 – 5 -8.50 FALSE 2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 33 – 22 2.20 TRUE 3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 28 – 3 -1.40 FALSE 4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 22 – 23 1.00 FALSE 5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 13 – 8 5.50 TRUE 6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 14 – 15 0.90 FALSE 7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 52 – 17 12.60 TRUE 8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 47 – 10 27.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Jan 24 Edinburgh 3.60 2 Munster vs. Dragons Jan 24 Munster 21.00 3 Ospreys vs. Lions Jan 24 Ospreys 5.00 4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Jan 25 Scarlets 1.40 5 Connacht vs. Leinster Jan 25 Leinster -10.90 6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jan 25 Stormers 12.30 7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Jan 25 Cardiff Rugby 8.10 8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Jan 25 Glasgow -14.70

 

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