Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 10.21 10.30 -0.10 Saracens 6.62 5.03 1.60 Northampton Saints 5.60 -1.47 7.10 Leicester Tigers 4.86 5.55 -0.70 Exeter Chiefs 4.67 -4.58 9.30 Sale Sharks 4.46 6.70 -2.20 Bristol 3.93 3.66 0.30 Gloucester -4.39 4.13 -8.50 Harlequins -8.37 -3.02 -5.40 Newcastle Red Bulls -19.75 -18.45 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 19 – 17 7.60 TRUE 2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester Jan 03 25 – 19 -10.90 FALSE 3 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 04 33 – 26 13.90 TRUE 4 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 04 66 – 21 16.90 TRUE 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 05 36 – 28 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 7.70 2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 25 Bath -7.60 3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Leicester Tigers -6.20 4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 Sale Sharks 5.90 5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jan 25 Saracens 33.40

 

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