NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals
Stats Chat 2026-01-13
Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Seahawks 9.51 1.60 7.90 Patriots 8.80 -6.88 15.70 Texans 6.76 0.65 6.10 Rams 6.47 3.32 3.20 Bills 5.76 8.28 -2.50 Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70 Jaguars 4.42 -6.28 10.70 Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40 Broncos 3.07 3.65 -0.60 49ers 2.95 -3.05 6.00 Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40 Packers 2.06 5.92 -3.90 Bears 1.24 -3.03 4.30 Chargers 0.96 2.67 -1.70 Eagles 0.79 12.46 -11.70 Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00 Steelers -0.75 -0.33 -0.40 Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40 Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00 Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90 Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40 Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40 Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90 Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90 Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10 Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40 Panthers -4.81 -7.28 2.50 Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80 Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70 Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40 Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10 Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60
Performance So Far
So far there have been 278 matches played, 167 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Panthers vs. Rams Jan 11 31 – 34 -13.10 TRUE 2 Bears vs. Packers Jan 11 31 – 27 -1.30 FALSE 3 Jaguars vs. Bills Jan 12 24 – 27 0.70 FALSE 4 Eagles vs. 49ers Jan 12 19 – 23 -0.10 TRUE 5 Patriots vs. Chargers Jan 12 16 – 3 7.20 TRUE 6 Steelers vs. Texans Jan 13 6 – 30 -2.70 TRUE
Predictions for the Divisional Finals
Here are the predictions for the Divisional Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Broncos vs. Bills Jan 18 Bills -1.70 2 Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 18 Seahawks 7.60 3 Bears vs. Rams Jan 19 Rams -4.20 4 Patriots vs. Texans Jan 19 Patriots 3.00The post NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.