Revised NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2
Stats Chat 2014-09-16
Update
Checking the grounds at which the games are being played this week, I have decided that the Sea Eagles versus Panthers game is being played on a neutral ground and so there should be no home ground advantage. I have decided to change my predictions for that game.
Team Ratings for Finals Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Rabbitohs 11.42 5.82 5.60 Roosters 10.14 12.35 -2.20 Cowboys 8.98 6.01 3.00 Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20 Panthers 4.45 -2.48 6.90 Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50 Sea Eagles 3.23 9.10 -5.90 Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50 Bulldogs -0.02 2.46 -2.50 Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50 Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50 Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40 Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30 Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90 Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20 Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40
Performance So Far
So far there have been 196 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Sep 12 24 – 40 -6.30 TRUE 2 Roosters vs. Panthers Sep 13 18 – 19 12.70 FALSE 3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 13 32 – 20 9.00 TRUE 4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sep 14 4 – 24 14.90 FALSE
Predictions for Finals Week 2
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 19 Roosters 5.70 2 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 20 Panthers -1.20