ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60 Tasman 12.10 5.78 6.30 Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00 Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20 Hawke’s Bay 2.07 2.75 -0.70 Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00 Auckland 0.31 4.92 -4.60 Otago -1.62 -1.45 -0.20 Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20 Bay of Plenty -4.12 -5.47 1.30 Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60 Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90 Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90 North Harbour -14.19 -9.77 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 23 – 40 11.80 FALSE 2 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 39 – 31 19.80 TRUE 3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 12 24 – 13 -0.70 FALSE 4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 12 46 – 12 15.50 TRUE 5 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 13 12 – 27 -0.40 TRUE 6 Southland vs. Northland Sep 13 36 – 34 7.80 TRUE 7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Sep 14 26 – 21 2.60 TRUE 8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 14 41 – 0 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Southland vs. Tasman Sep 17 Tasman -13.30 2 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 18 Taranaki -1.40 3 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 19 Canterbury -13.50 4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.20 5 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 20 Auckland 18.50 6 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 20 Southland -0.20 7 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 21 Otago 1.60 8 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 21 Wellington 0.10