AFL Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Bulldogs 29.31 26.06 3.30 Brisbane Lions 24.75 26.20 -1.40 Geelong Cats 21.26 26.75 -5.50 Hawthorn Hawks 20.14 22.83 -2.70 Adelaide Crows 15.84 15.32 0.50 Sydney Swans 15.59 0.56 15.00 Gold Coast Suns 15.03 10.24 4.80 Fremantle Dockers 12.44 6.56 5.90 Collingwood 8.50 11.76 -3.30 GWS Giants 4.07 9.54 -5.50 Melbourne Demons 2.83 1.64 1.20 St Kilda Saints -6.47 -7.63 1.20 Carlton Blues -12.34 -4.77 -7.60 Port Adelaide Power -14.48 -14.65 0.20 North Melbourne -19.01 -21.71 2.70 Essendon Bombers -29.93 -27.89 -2.00 Richmond Tigers -34.48 -29.44 -5.00 West Coast Eagles -41.05 -39.36 -1.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 02 119 – 65 22.50 TRUE 2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 96 – 86 -9.70 FALSE 3 Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 03 76 – 78 17.40 FALSE 4 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 04 48 – 90 -3.20 TRUE 5 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 04 35 – 163 -31.90 TRUE 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 05 109 – 89 -5.00 FALSE 7 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 99 – 65 63.80 TRUE 8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 92 – 91 11.80 TRUE

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues Apr 09 Adelaide Crows 39.20 2 Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 10 Fremantle Dockers -3.90 3 North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 11 Brisbane Lions -43.80 4 Essendon Bombers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 11 Melbourne Demons -32.80 5 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 11 Sydney Swans 0.60 6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 11 Western Bulldogs -9.20 7 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 Geelong Cats 62.30 8 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 12 GWS Giants 38.50 9 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 12 Port Adelaide Power 3.00 The post AFL Predictions for Week 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.