Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 11.58 12.36 -0.80 Hurricanes 11.16 8.29 2.90 Blues 9.86 8.91 1.00 Crusaders 8.62 8.41 0.20 Brumbies 5.86 5.59 0.30 Reds -0.04 1.74 -1.80 Highlanders -3.03 -3.06 0.00 Western Force -4.50 -6.29 1.80 Waratahs -5.05 -5.84 0.80 Fijian Drua -8.84 -7.64 -1.20 Moana Pasifika -11.03 -7.88 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 03 69 – 26 19.20 TRUE 2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 04 42 – 14 19.30 TRUE 3 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 04 19 – 42 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Brumbies -5.40 2 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Apr 11 Chiefs -17.60 3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Apr 11 Fijian Drua 0.70 4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Apr 11 Hurricanes 6.30 5 Reds vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Crusaders -5.20

 

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