NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 14.05 8.77 5.30 Roosters 5.88 9.50 -3.60 Sharks 5.60 7.25 -1.60 Broncos 4.72 7.06 -2.30 Storm 3.44 6.96 -3.50 Warriors 2.91 -1.18 4.10 Sea Eagles 1.97 0.21 1.80 Bulldogs -0.08 2.13 -2.20 Dolphins -0.47 1.85 -2.30 Wests Tigers -1.39 -7.26 5.90 Raiders -1.72 1.62 -3.30 Rabbitohs -2.32 -5.05 2.70 Cowboys -3.12 -2.69 -0.40 Eels -4.67 -0.37 -4.30 Titans -5.40 -8.02 2.60 Knights -8.29 -14.06 5.80 Dragons -11.11 -6.72 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Apr 16 6 – 38 3.50 FALSE 2 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 17 26 – 22 -2.60 FALSE 3 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 17 22 – 23 -12.20 TRUE 4 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 18 28 – 20 13.50 TRUE 5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 18 30 – 12 11.30 TRUE 6 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 18 20 – 21 -2.40 TRUE 7 Roosters vs. Knights Apr 19 38 – 24 19.30 TRUE 8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 19 38 – 20 -3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 23 Wests Tigers 4.30 2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Apr 24 Sharks -4.70 3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 Broncos 8.80 4 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -21.00 5 Warriors vs. Dolphins Apr 25 Warriors 7.40 6 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 Storm 9.80 7 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 26 Panthers -18.30 8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 Sea Eagles 10.60

 

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