Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 12.23 12.36 -0.10 Hurricanes 11.85 8.29 3.60 Blues 8.75 8.91 -0.20 Crusaders 7.59 8.41 -0.80 Brumbies 4.86 5.59 -0.70 Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30 Highlanders -2.49 -3.06 0.60 Western Force -4.01 -6.29 2.30 Waratahs -4.81 -5.84 1.00 Fijian Drua -7.84 -7.64 -0.20 Moana Pasifika -11.97 -7.88 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 17 47 – 40 17.10 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 17 29 – 14 10.20 TRUE 3 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 18 22 – 17 5.40 TRUE 4 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 18 28 – 33 19.50 FALSE 5 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 18 31 – 26 -9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Apr 24 Crusaders 15.90 2 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 25 Hurricanes 10.50 3 Blues vs. Reds Apr 25 Blues 11.80 4 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 26 Highlanders 14.50 5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 Chiefs 23.60

 

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