NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Rabbitohs 11.42 5.82 5.60 Roosters 9.66 12.35 -2.70 Cowboys 9.46 6.01 3.40 Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20 Panthers 4.45 -2.48 6.90 Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50 Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50 Sea Eagles 2.78 9.10 -6.30 Bulldogs 0.42 2.46 -2.00 Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50 Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50 Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40 Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30 Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90 Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20 Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 19 31 – 30 5.70 TRUE 2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Sep 20 17 – 18 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 26 Rabbitohs 6.30 2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 27 Panthers 4.00