NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 14.08 8.77 5.30 Dolphins 8.93 1.85 7.10 Warriors 6.65 -1.18 7.80 Roosters 6.34 9.50 -3.20 Sharks 5.42 7.25 -1.80 Sea Eagles 4.84 0.21 4.60 Storm 2.60 6.96 -4.40 Rabbitohs 1.51 -5.05 6.60 Cowboys -2.65 -2.69 0.00 Bulldogs -4.08 2.13 -6.20 Raiders -4.16 1.62 -5.80 Broncos -4.24 7.06 -11.30 Knights -4.82 -14.06 9.20 Titans -5.01 -8.02 3.00 Eels -6.10 -0.37 -5.70 Wests Tigers -7.41 -7.26 -0.20 Dragons -11.93 -6.72 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 19 22 – 20 12.80 TRUE 2 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Jun 20 22 – 36 -11.90 TRUE 3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 20 19 – 18 -17.70 FALSE 4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 13 – 12 -6.60 FALSE 5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 21 38 – 20 12.00 TRUE 6 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 21 42 – 20 8.80 TRUE 7 Roosters vs. Sharks Jun 21 27 – 8 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 Rabbitohs -3.60 2 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 Titans 3.10 3 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 26 Roosters -6.60 4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Jun 27 Dolphins 6.30 5 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 27 Panthers -12.70 6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 27 Sea Eagles 6.20 7 Raiders vs. Dragons Jun 28 Raiders 11.80 8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 Knights 6.60

 

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