AFL Predictions for Week 18

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 27.95 26.75 1.20 Fremantle Dockers 26.12 6.56 19.60 Hawthorn Hawks 17.70 22.83 -5.10 Sydney Swans 16.44 0.56 15.90 Brisbane Lions 14.86 26.20 -11.30 Adelaide Crows 12.79 15.32 -2.50 Western Bulldogs 7.28 26.06 -18.80 Collingwood 4.28 11.76 -7.50 GWS Giants 4.22 9.54 -5.30 Melbourne Demons 3.66 1.64 2.00 Gold Coast Suns 2.65 10.24 -7.60 Carlton Blues 1.50 -4.77 6.30 St Kilda Saints -1.27 -7.63 6.40 Port Adelaide Power -5.75 -14.65 8.90 North Melbourne -17.89 -21.71 3.80 Essendon Bombers -30.14 -27.89 -2.20 West Coast Eagles -33.88 -39.36 5.50 Richmond Tigers -38.51 -29.44 -9.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Jun 25 126 – 83 3.50 TRUE 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 26 96 – 82 26.80 TRUE 3 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 27 117 – 64 44.90 TRUE 4 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 27 106 – 72 44.70 TRUE 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 27 97 – 71 -26.30 FALSE 6 North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 28 79 – 65 11.90 TRUE 7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 28 80 – 29 31.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 02 Geelong Cats 24.10 2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 Sydney Swans 20.20 3 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 03 Adelaide Crows -35.70 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 04 Hawthorn Hawks 25.00 5 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 04 Fremantle Dockers -10.90 6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 04 Gold Coast Suns 9.40 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jul 04 Carlton Blues -35.00 8 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 05 St Kilda Saints -23.90 9 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Jul 05 Port Adelaide Power 23.10

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.