NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40 Dolphins 7.66 1.85 5.80 Warriors 7.12 -1.18 8.30 Roosters 6.27 9.50 -3.20 Sharks 6.13 7.25 -1.10 Sea Eagles 4.92 0.21 4.70 Rabbitohs 1.77 -5.05 6.80 Storm 1.21 6.96 -5.70 Cowboys -0.85 -2.69 1.80 Bulldogs -2.61 2.13 -4.70 Knights -4.09 -14.06 10.00 Raiders -4.57 1.62 -6.20 Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90 Eels -5.97 -0.37 -5.60 Titans -6.47 -8.02 1.50 Wests Tigers -8.39 -7.26 -1.10 Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 36 – 14 13.60 TRUE 2 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 04 24 – 10 -0.20 FALSE 3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 16 – 28 -5.60 TRUE 4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jul 05 23 – 14 -9.50 FALSE 5 Knights vs. Dolphins Jul 05 13 – 12 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -11.50 2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 Dolphins 5.50 3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 Bulldogs 6.00 4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 Roosters 16.20 5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 Rabbitohs 9.90 6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 Sea Eagles 9.80 7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 Storm 11.70

 

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