AFL Predictions for Week 19

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 24.53 26.75 -2.20 Fremantle Dockers 23.70 6.56 17.10 Brisbane Lions 18.29 26.20 -7.90 Sydney Swans 17.60 0.56 17.00 Hawthorn Hawks 13.29 22.83 -9.50 Adelaide Crows 11.83 15.32 -3.50 Melbourne Demons 8.06 1.64 6.40 GWS Giants 6.63 9.54 -2.90 Western Bulldogs 6.11 26.06 -19.90 Collingwood 5.49 11.76 -6.30 St Kilda Saints 1.49 -7.63 9.10 Gold Coast Suns 1.44 10.24 -8.80 Carlton Blues -1.35 -4.77 3.40 Port Adelaide Power -5.82 -14.65 8.80 North Melbourne -16.45 -21.71 5.30 West Coast Eagles -32.92 -39.36 6.40 Essendon Bombers -34.27 -27.89 -6.40 Richmond Tigers -35.66 -29.44 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 02 101 – 123 24.10 FALSE 2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 90 – 55 20.20 TRUE 3 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 03 74 – 99 -35.70 TRUE 4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 04 90 – 125 25.00 FALSE 5 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 04 109 – 88 -10.90 FALSE 6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 04 98 – 104 9.40 FALSE 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jul 04 72 – 74 -40.00 TRUE 8 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 05 50 – 117 -30.20 TRUE 9 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Jul 05 73 – 52 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 Fremantle Dockers 17.10 2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 Collingwood 21.90 3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 St Kilda Saints 18.30 4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 Geelong Cats -6.90 5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 Hawthorn Hawks -14.60 6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 Adelaide Crows 21.40 7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 Western Bulldogs 50.00 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 Melbourne Demons 43.70 9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 Brisbane Lions 63.60

 

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