AFL Predictions for Week 20

Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Fremantle Dockers 25.32 6.56 18.80 Geelong Cats 22.98 26.75 -3.80 Brisbane Lions 20.31 26.20 -5.90 Hawthorn Hawks 16.95 22.83 -5.90 Adelaide Crows 16.07 15.32 0.80 Sydney Swans 15.99 0.56 15.40 Melbourne Demons 8.27 1.64 6.60 GWS Giants 8.17 9.54 -1.40 Collingwood 4.09 11.76 -7.70 Western Bulldogs 3.54 26.06 -22.50 St Kilda Saints 1.11 -7.63 8.70 Gold Coast Suns -2.79 10.24 -13.00 Carlton Blues -5.01 -4.77 -0.20 Port Adelaide Power -5.43 -14.65 9.20 North Melbourne -15.06 -21.71 6.70 West Coast Eagles -30.35 -39.36 9.00 Richmond Tigers -35.87 -29.44 -6.40 Essendon Bombers -36.29 -27.89 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 111 – 73 17.10 TRUE 2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 89 – 85 21.90 TRUE 3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 87 – 73 18.30 TRUE 4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 86 – 73 -6.90 FALSE 5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 39 – 103 -14.60 TRUE 6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 128 – 49 21.40 TRUE 7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 86 – 70 50.00 TRUE 8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 111 – 65 43.70 TRUE 9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 149 – 59 63.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 Geelong Cats 32.90 2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 Sydney Swans 10.90 3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 Fremantle Dockers -19.70 4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 Melbourne Demons -23.30 5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 Collingwood 9.10 6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 Brisbane Lions -39.70 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 Hawthorn Hawks -52.80 8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 Gold Coast Suns 4.70 9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 GWS Giants -33.50

 

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