NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Rabbitohs 11.81 5.82 6.00 Cowboys 9.46 6.01 3.40 Roosters 9.27 12.35 -3.10 Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20 Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50 Panthers 3.49 -2.48 6.00 Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50 Sea Eagles 2.78 9.10 -6.30 Bulldogs 1.38 2.46 -1.10 Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50 Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50 Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40 Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30 Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90 Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20 Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 26 32 – 22 6.30 TRUE 2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 27 12 – 18 4.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Oct 05 Rabbitohs 10.40