ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Canterbury 13.83 18.09 -4.30 Tasman 12.17 5.78 6.40 Auckland 6.43 4.92 1.50 Taranaki 4.87 -3.89 8.80 Counties Manukau 3.79 2.40 1.40 Hawke’s Bay 1.86 2.75 -0.90 Otago -2.60 -1.45 -1.20 Northland -3.21 -8.22 5.00 Wellington -3.87 10.16 -14.00 Manawatu -4.03 -10.32 6.30 Waikato -6.62 -1.20 -5.40 Southland -7.33 -5.85 -1.50 Bay of Plenty -8.35 -5.47 -2.90 North Harbour -9.00 -9.77 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 01 36 – 14 9.00 TRUE 2 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 02 60 – 19 13.00 TRUE 3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 03 58 – 27 6.20 TRUE 4 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Oct 04 10 – 24 -5.80 TRUE 5 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 04 33 – 16 -5.00 FALSE 6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 04 10 – 38 11.10 FALSE 7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 29 – 3 -5.50 FALSE 8 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 05 22 – 38 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 08 Counties Manukau 1.40 2 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 Waikato 5.70 3 Otago vs. Manawatu Oct 10 Otago 5.40 4 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 11 Wellington 9.10 5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Oct 11 Hawke’s Bay 13.20 6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 11 Auckland 13.60 7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 12 Canterbury -5.00 8 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 Tasman 12.40