Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 6.03 0.07 6.00 Western Province 6.02 3.43 2.60 Sharks 4.36 5.09 -0.70 Blue Bulls 1.02 -0.74 1.80 Cheetahs -3.53 0.33 -3.90 Pumas -8.20 -10.00 1.80 Griquas -10.10 -7.49 -2.60 Kings -14.91 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Kings vs. Pumas Oct 10 26 – 25 -2.20 FALSE 2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 11 47 – 7 11.30 TRUE 3 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 11 20 – 28 8.70 FALSE 4 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 11 46 – 12 13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Sharks Oct 18 Lions 6.70 2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 18 Western Province 10.00