ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Canterbury 13.65 18.09 -4.40 Tasman 10.97 5.78 5.20 Counties Manukau 6.58 2.40 4.20 Auckland 6.05 4.92 1.10 Taranaki 5.06 -3.89 9.00 Hawke’s Bay 0.84 2.75 -1.90 Manawatu -2.66 -10.32 7.70 Wellington -2.74 10.16 -12.90 Otago -3.98 -1.45 -2.50 Northland -4.42 -8.22 3.80 Waikato -5.74 -1.20 -4.50 Southland -6.31 -5.85 -0.50 Bay of Plenty -9.23 -5.47 -3.80 North Harbour -10.13 -9.77 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 08 41 – 18 1.40 TRUE 2 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 29 – 12 5.70 TRUE 3 Otago vs. Manawatu Oct 10 25 – 38 5.40 FALSE 4 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 11 58 – 34 9.10 TRUE 5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Oct 11 20 – 20 13.20 FALSE 6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 11 38 – 10 13.60 TRUE 7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 12 23 – 26 -5.00 TRUE 8 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 16 – 21 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 17 Hawke’s Bay 9.30 2 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 18 Manawatu 7.70 3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 18 Taranaki 3.00 4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 18 Tasman 1.30